California commercial production is proving far more resilient than many expected. Even as the broader U.S. production landscape keeps shifting, new industry data shows the Golden State remains the clear leader in advertising shoots, helped in large part by the growing power of celebrity-driven campaigns.
That matters for everyone in TV and video, from producers and agencies to brands and talent reps. Commercials are no longer just short-form marketing assets; they are premium entertainment-adjacent productions fueled by social reach, star power, and increasingly sophisticated distribution strategies.
California Commercial Production Still Leads the Market
According to newly reported industry findings from Extreme Reach, U.S. commercial production volume fell 25% between 2019 and 2025, but the first half of 2026 showed a much smaller 2% dip. That slowdown in the decline suggests the market may be stabilizing.
At the center of that stability is California commercial production, which accounts for 42% of the nation’s ad shoot volume. Despite well-publicized challenges in film and TV production, California continues to dominate the commercial side of the business.
Several factors help explain why:
- Deep access to celebrities, creators, and union talent
- Established production crews and post-production ecosystems
- Proximity to agencies, brands, and entertainment companies
- Reliable infrastructure for high-end shoots across multiple formats
For advertisers looking to blend commercial storytelling with entertainment value, California remains hard to beat.
Why Celebrity Endorsements Are Driving Ad Production
A major force behind the strength of California commercial production is the continued rise of celebrity advertising. Celebrity payments are projected to hit $1.3 billion in 2026, while total commercial talent payments, including influencers, scale actors, and celebrities, are expected to reach $2.06 billion.
That represents a sharp increase from 2020 and reflects a broader shift in how brands think about visibility. Star talent now offers more than screen presence. Celebrities bring built-in audiences, social amplification, and crossover appeal across TV, streaming, digital video, and short-form platforms.
What brands want from celebrity-led campaigns
- Instant audience recognition
- Stronger engagement across social media
- Cultural relevance beyond a single ad buy
- Press coverage and earned media momentum
Unlike earlier eras, when a celebrity might align closely with one signature brand, today’s endorsement market is much more fluid. Talent is appearing in multiple campaigns, across multiple sectors, often with less exclusivity than before.
That trend benefits California commercial production because the state remains the easiest place to coordinate large-scale, talent-heavy campaigns quickly and efficiently.
New York Slips While Texas and New Jersey Gain Ground
While California commercial production remains dominant, other states are reshaping the competitive map. New York, once a stronger advertising production base, has seen its market share drop to 14%, down 10 percentage points since 2019.
Texas now ranks third with 6.5% of production volume, boosted by a 16% surge over the past year. Florida, Illinois, and Georgia each hold between 3% and 6%, showing that commercial work is becoming more geographically diverse.
Why New York is losing share
One of the biggest reasons appears to be New Jersey. Aggressive tax incentives and growing production infrastructure are pulling voiceover, post, and some shoot activity across state lines. The economics are increasingly attractive for agencies and producers who still want access to the New York creative corridor without paying New York-level costs.
In practical terms, that means the commercial production market is not simply shrinking or growing in one direction. It is relocating, optimizing, and adjusting based on cost, access, and talent availability.
Has AI Changed Commercial Production Yet?
Artificial intelligence is now embedded in many parts of the content pipeline, especially editing, cleanup, versioning, and post-production workflows. But when it comes to actual shoot volume, the current data suggests AI has not materially reduced demand for live-action commercials.
That is an important takeaway for anyone watching the future of California commercial production. AI may be streamlining processes behind the scenes, but brands still want real-world shoots, recognizable talent, and cinematic production value for high-impact campaigns.
In other words, AI is currently acting more as an efficiency layer than a replacement for commercial production itself.
What This Means for the TV & Video Industry
The health of California commercial production offers a useful signal for the wider TV and video economy. Commercials often move faster than film or scripted television, making them a strong indicator of where advertiser confidence and content spending are heading.
Key takeaways for the industry include:
- Celebrity-led advertising is expanding, not cooling off.
- California remains the premium hub for complex, high-visibility shoots.
- Regional competition is rising, especially in lower-cost states.
- AI has not yet disrupted production volume in a meaningful way.
For production companies, this creates a two-track reality: premium work continues to cluster around California, while cost-conscious or specialized projects may increasingly spread to secondary markets.
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Conclusion
California commercial production is still the industry’s anchor in 2026, and celebrity demand is a major reason why. Even after years of contraction in the broader market, the latest data points to a more stable environment for ad production, especially in the premium, talent-led segment.
The bigger takeaway is clear: while production is becoming more distributed and cost-sensitive, California remains the top destination for commercial shoots that need star power, scale, and cultural impact. For brands and producers in TV and video, that makes California commercial production one of the most important trends to watch this year.
